What will Israel do with 7 million Palestinians, expected to double their current population in 3 – 4 decades?
Israel’s existential dilemma
By Khalid Amayreh
What will Israel do with 7 million Palestinians, expected to double their current population in 3 – 4 decades?
Observers of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict have come to realize that Palestinian demographic growth within mandatory Palestine (Israel proper, the West Bank and Gaza Strip) now constitutes the most formidable strategic challenge facing the Jewish state and the Zionist movement as a whole. One Israeli strategic expert called this challenge “the mother of all problems and nightmares facing Israel.”
Israel doesn’t ignore the problem, of course, despite its awesome military might and the almost unlimited and unrestricted American backing. Thus the Palestinian demographic “threat” is a constant subject of often acrimonious arguments involving politicians, strategic planners as well as intellectuals, statisticians and demographers.
Never the less, Israeli officials and spokespeople, especially those associated with the Benjamin Netanyahu government’s harsh policies toward the Palestinians, are often seen trying to dismiss the issue as just another banal challenge facing the Jewish state.
Israeli routinely publishes the latest demographic forecasts on the eve of major Jewish holidays, such as the Jewish New year. However these studies seem far from reliable as statistical manipulation of these studies raises the eyebrows of evenhanded professionals. For example The Palestinian population of Israel is subcategorized into Muslim Arabs, Christian Arabs Bedouin Arabs, Druze Arabs, and Circassians. No similar categorization is listed or mentioned, even fleetingly, when dealing with the Jewish population, although there are many distinctive Jewish groups such as Eastern Orthodox Jews, Haridi ultra-Orthodox, Western Ashkenazi Orthodox, Reform Jews, Conservative Jews, Chabad Jews, etc.
It is widely believed that the ultimate aim of this tendentious manipulation is to present Jews as a united demographic bloc while portraying the Palestinians as a divided and heterogeneous population with many sects and sub-sects.
More to the point, Israel from time to time publishes politically motivated reports about the growth of settler population in the West Bank as opposed to a purportedly dwindling Palestinian birth rate.
Notwithstanding, the naked demographic facts seem so imposing and virtually udisputable that no person valuing rectitude would deny.
Predictably, these facts leave a very narrow margin for optimism for Israeli expansionists and advocates of Greater Israel or the so-called biblical irredentism.
Last year, a group of veteran military officers raised large signs in Tel Aviv reading: “Israel is about to have an Arab majority” and “ when will Jews become a minority in the only Jewish state in the world”? The protesters, who included prominent former military commanders, also accused the Israel’s right wing government of taking the country to a bi-national state.”
The protesters were by no means phobic and the slogans they raised were by no means hyperbolic. They were simply voicing the views of many silent Israelis. And the driving motivation behind their activity was by no means their concern for the Palestinians and their human or civil rights but rather their concern for the future of Israel and Zionism.
Israeli intellectual Uri Avnery, who died this week at the age og 94, believes the government is hiding vital demographic data, pertaining to Jewish and Palestinian demography, from the Israeli public
Avnery pointed out in one of his articles several months ago that the Palestinian population between the Mediterranean and the River Jordan was either equal to or slightly higher than the Jewish population.
For its part, the Ramallah-based Palestinian Bureau of Statistics, a usually reliable think-tank, reported a few months ago that the Palestinian population in the West Bank. Gaza Strip, East Jerusalem and Israel proper was nearly equal to the Israeli Jewish population in the same territories.
Palestinians will double their population in 3-4 decades
Palestinian as well as Israeli demographers calculate that Palestinians in mandatory Palestine will double their current population figures within 3-4 decades due to their significantly higher birth rate. In other words, Palestinians, baring an unthinkable Israeli feat like expulsion or some sort of genocide, would become a numerical majority and Israeli Jews would become a numerical minority.
In addition, it is projected that in 50 years from now, Israel will be surrounded by 800 million-1 billion Arabs and Muslims in the Middle East and North Africa. In other words, Israel would be reduced to a small island in the midst of a huge sea of Arabs and Muslims.
Morbid dreams
Israel constantly whishes a miracle of some sort would occur and the Palestinian demographic “menace” would disappear or significantly subside. But we are talking about wishful thinking and day- dreaming which is more an expression of deep frustration than a realistic hope. It is also an expression of the deepening historical predicament facing Zionism.
True, Israel has always been trying to confine the largest possible Palestinian population within the smallest possible area of land. This is the reason Israeli bulldozers hasten to destroy newly-built Arab homes in Area-C of the West Bank where Israel, according to the hapless Oslo Accords, has full civilian and security authority. In the final analysis, Israel wants as much as possible of Palestinian geography and as little as possible of Palestinian demography. This is what Zionism is all about. Nonetheless, this brashly racist and manifestly fascist policy will eventually boomerang on Zionism and Israel as Palestinians are already beginning to increasingly giving up the two-state solution and opting for one democratic and unitary state comprising Israel and the Occupied Territories.
Israel has, whether we like it or not, has already decapitated, once and for all, any remaining prospects for a viable and territorially contiguous state for the Palestinians. And the Palestinians would rather die than accept a “dwarfed state”, e.g., one without East Jerusalem, without the repatriation of refugees, and without ending the occupation that began in 1967. Needless to say, any Palestinian leader contemplating accepting such a scandalously dismal deal will most probably not live long enough to regret his folly.
Now, with the 2-state solution virtually dead, only two probabilities remain: 1- the one-state solution, which would spell the end of Zionism, that is why it will be absolutely rejected by Israel.
The other probability is open-ended conflict. That is the most logical scenario for the future.
But, once again, what would Israel do with, or more correctly to, 7 million Palestinians, who are expected to double their number in 3-4 decades which is not a long period?
Would Israel poison them? Would it sterilize them to prevent them from procreation? Would it use against them secret but deadly chemical agents that would make the death of millions look quite natural? Would it withhold food and water from them? Would it banish them?
Or would it concoct some stark cause alibi like carrying out massive bombings of Israeli population centers and then blame the bombings on Hamas? Or would it simply terrorize them into leaving their homes like Bashar Assad did to millions of “non-conformist” Syrians in active cooperation and collusion with Russia, Iran and Hizbullah?
It would be utterly naïve and too gullible to rule out any of these hair-raising scenarios especially in light of the likelihood that the US would almost certainly support Israel, irrespective of the nefariousness of Israeli actions including possible genocide in which millions would perish. ( some millenarian Messianic Jews are so eager to see an evangelical president at the White House, who would grant Israel a total carte blanch to effect a final solution for the Palestinian issue as evangelical Christian Zionists are thoroughly convinced that Israel should be allowed to implement the Lord’s will)!.
In light, it is essential the Palestinians remain quite vigilant and steadfast because steadfastness (e.g. preserving and consolidating the demographic card) is the only winning card we possess and if we win it we win everything and if we lose it we lose everything.
Finally, we must carefully refrain from giving Israel a pretext to take draconian or unthinkable measures against our very existence. Wining the demographic card is not only a matter of procreation. It is also a matter of wisdom, winning more friends, non-violence, resilience, and patience.
Related thoughts …
traducteur said,
August 22, 2018 at 11:51
Still no luck with that plague that will kill only goyim, evidently.
JOHN CHUCKMAN said,
August 22, 2018 at 23:00
Readers may enjoy:
https://chuckmanwords.wordpress.com/2014/02/16/understanding-modern-israel-why-it-is-driving-the-world-towards-madness/